Current Summary

Model forecast for cumulative lab-confirmed cases:

Date	Uncertainty Lower Bound	Best-fit	Uncertainty Upper Bound
April 30 (1 week)	34,166	37,723	57,682
May 14 (3 weeks)	34,382	39,933	108,889

Additionally, the current best fit across model simulations projects (for uncertainty ranges, please see plots):

• April 30, 2020 (1 week): roughly 2500 COVID+ hospitalized patients (beds needed) with roughly 340 in ICU
• May 14, 2020 (3 weeks): roughly 1300 COVID+ hospitalized patients (beds needed) with roughly 180 in ICU

Note that the model is a work in progress and being updated as the epidemic progresses. Because we are still making improvements and including new data in the model, these results are highly preliminary and uncertain. The forecasts shown here also do not account for the ongoing changes in social distancing occurring over the coming weeks. For more on social distancing, see the ‘Scenarios’ tab.